By Rosalind Stewart
There has been alarming news in recent weeks. President Trump has made clear that the United States is sympathetic to President Putin’s view that a ‘peace’ must be negotiated for Ukraine between the USA and Russia, without the presence or consent of either Ukraine or the EU. It is time urgently to reassess the UK’s relationship with the EU, including on defence matters.
A little-discussed package of agreements called the Berlin Plus Agreement, signed in late 2002 between NATO and the EU, established a set of protocols for the EU to draw upon NATO’s military assets for the EU’s own peacekeeping operations. Since 2004, an EU joint force, EUFOR, has been present in Bosnia – Herzegovina, assuming the peace-keeping role that NATO relinquished after ending the war in Bosnia in 1996. After the three bloody wars that a previous dictator, Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia, instigated in the 1990s, Operation Althea/EUFOR has done an excellent job in maintaining the peace in Bosnia – Herzegovina, performing a similar role to the UN forces in Cyprus, which have been maintaining the peace since the war there in the mid-1970s.Unfortunately, the UK left EUFOR on 18 December 2020 as part of the negotiated Brexit deal after sixteen years of membership.
Ukraine borders four EU and NATO countries: Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary, as well as Russia and Putin’s great ally, Belarus. Many commentators now believe that Trump has ‘sold out’ Ukraine, and any negotiated ‘deal’ might involve Ukraine giving up 50% of its valuable mineral reserves as ‘back payment’ to the US for its support over the past three years, and will not be given any assurance by Trump’s America that new ‘negotiated’ borders will be secured by NATO. As the US provides 22% of NATO’s overall running costs, is the largest contributor, and hosts 100,000 troops across Europe, any potential NATO-backed agreement without the US would be a very insecure agreement.
Most observers, including President Zelenskyy of Ukraine and Secretary of Defence John Healey, think that President Putin will become more emboldened by a punishing, unjust, and unsecured ‘peace’ between Russia and Ukraine, and that Putin would re-group to conquer further countries that were previously in the USSR. It is a well-known fact that Putin yearns for the ‘glory’ years of the Soviet Union, and invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine twice (in 2014 and in 2022) with the sole aim of ‘re-integrating’ these countries back into the Russian fold. Indeed many leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk have stated publicly that a Russian win in Ukraine would be a disastrous outcome for Europe and would lead to further war on the Continent.
Brexit has left the United Kingdom very exposed on the national security front. European countries are now recognising that they may no longer rely on the USA to support NATO under the Trump administration. At the moment, the UK finds itself in a position where its membership of NATO gives almost no security for its own protection, and yet it is also outside the EU, including the Berlin Accords. If things go the way Trump and Putin would like, there could well be another war in Europe in the near future. Many experts and defence ministers expect that an emboldened Russia will invade a NATO country within 3 to 5 years, to ‘test’ the alliance’s resolve.
The EU, along with some other potential partners such as Canada, is showing remarkable resolve in preparing for the future protection of Ukraine and for a potential future invasion of a NATO/EU ally. The Rearm European Plan was announced by the EU on March 4th 2024, which will release 500 billion euros to plug ‘credibility gaps’ after the US withdraws partially or fully from NATO. More major developments are being announced daily.
As Niall O’Conghaile writes in the Byline Times “Europe is ready to transform its military; that means very close collaboration; the money will be available; it can be done without the US; Ukraine will be defended and everyone inside is getting on board. The bus is leaving.”
For the sake of our national security, it’s essential that we apply to re-join the EU as quickly as possible.